SpaceX is pushing an unprecedented strategic gamble to the forefront, as the rocket giant has begun to reject exclusive launch orders for Falcon 9 after 2028 and halt production of some non reusable components, fully betting on the Starship rocket that has not yet been put into commercial operation.
On Friday, according to Bloomberg citing informed sources, SpaceX has stopped accepting future bookings for the Falcon 9 carpool launch project and has discontinued some non reusable components, including the upper stage of the rocket. The timing of this strategic shift coincides with a deep correction in SpaceX's stock price - the company's stock has fallen about 24% from its historic IPO offering price of $135 last month, and closed at $118.24 on Thursday, more than 12% lower than the offering price.
The above measures mean that if the starship cannot have commercial launch capabilities by the end of 2028, many space companies around the world that rely on SpaceX to enter orbit will face a severe capacity gap. Against the backdrop of a global shortage of heavy launch vehicles, this risk cannot be ignored.
Refusal to accept orders, strategic shift has been substantially initiated
According to sources familiar with Bloomberg, SpaceX has begun to reject satellite operators' requests for exclusive launch of Falcon 9 after 2028, while suspending future bookings for carpool launch projects. More importantly, the company has stopped producing some non reusable components of the Falcon series rockets, including the large upper stage of the rockets.
SpaceX has previously publicly stated plans to gradually replace Falcon 9 with a starship, but has never disclosed a specific timeline. The exposure of this substantive action marks that this strategic transformation has entered the execution stage from a verbal statement, and is considered one of the most significant strategic transformations in the company's launch business in decades.
Insiders also pointed out that there are variables in SpaceX's plans, and if Starship R&D encounters a major setback, the company may adjust its strategy. In addition, Falcon 9 is expected to continue to undertake launch missions for the US Department of Defense and NASA.
Starships have suffered repeated setbacks and their commercialization process is lagging behind
Starship is the core carrier of Musk's space ambitions, carrying the grand vision of deploying data centers in space, expanding Starlink communication networks, and even sending humans to the moon and Mars. However, this rocket has not yet been put into operation, and there have been a series of explosion accidents, system failures, and schedule delays during the testing cycle.
On Thursday of this week, SpaceX once again postponed the scheduled Starship test flight, marking the second delay in about a week. The continuous lag in the development progress of Starship is considered one of the important factors that have put pressure on SpaceX's stock price recently.
To complete the transition from testing phase to commercial launch within about a year and a half, SpaceX needs to overcome multiple key technological bottlenecks and bring this long delayed aircraft to market, which is extremely difficult.
Falcon exits, global orbital capacity faces gap
The Falcon 9 has almost monopolized the global commercial space launch market for many years and is the carrier rocket with the highest number of launches worldwide to date. It significantly lowered the cost of entering space and directly spurred the flourishing development of large-scale satellite constellation networks, including Starlink.
Once the Falcon 9 exits the commercial launch market and the starship fails to take over as scheduled, many aerospace companies around the world that rely on SpaceX's capacity will be in trouble. The current global shortage of heavy launch vehicles is already severe, and SpaceX's move may further exacerbate the tense situation of orbit access, which will have an impact on the entire commercial aerospace industry chain.
SpaceX completed its historic initial public offering last month, with a price set at $135. However, the uncertainty caused by the delay in starship development quickly eroded market confidence, and the company's stock price has fallen by about 24% in the past month.
