SpaceX has submitted its first quarterly report since going public, with core financial indicators significantly better than market expectations. The progress of narrowing losses in the AI business is stronger than expected, but AI related capital expenditures are higher than expected, and it is expected that the scale of such expenditures will remain unchanged and decrease in the next two quarters.
After the US stock market closed on Tuesday, Eastern Time, SpaceX announced that its total revenue for the second quarter of 2026 as of June 30 increased by 92% year-on-year to approximately $7.8 billion, more than 10% higher than analysts' expectations; Adjusted EBITDA increased by approximately 192% year-on-year to $3.5 billion, which is 75% higher than market expectations; The earnings per share (EPS) was -0.09 US dollars, far below the market's expected loss range of 0.23 to 0.26 US dollars.
There has also been an improvement in the quality of profitability. SpaceX's net loss for the second quarter was approximately $541 million, a decrease of approximately 46% compared to the same period last year. The AI business is still operating at a loss, but the scale of the loss is lower than expected: the AI department incurred an operating loss of $1.26 billion in the second quarter, which is more than 47% lower than analysts' expected loss.
From a business perspective, the connectivity business where Starlink operates remains SpaceX's most important source of profit at present. In the second quarter, the revenue from connectivity business increased by nearly 66% year-on-year to 4.29 billion US dollars, exceeding market expectations by more than 10%. Operating profit increased by nearly 80% year-on-year to 1.66 billion US dollars. In contrast, the space launch and AI businesses are still operating at a loss.
The first shareholder material disclosed by SpaceX also emphasizes that its military and national security satellite business, Starshield, built for the government, has received over $6 billion in multi-year US government contracts, highlighting the weight of government and defense orders in SpaceX's business model.
However, the strong performance did not stabilize the stock price. Prior to the release of its financial report, SpaceX closed up 9.4% on Tuesday; After the release of the financial report, the stock price first rose by more than 1% in the post market, then turned down, and fell nearly 9% at one point in the post market. Analysis suggests that stock price performance does not necessarily indicate poor financial performance, but rather a higher threshold for "exceeding expectations" in the market due to high valuations, high expectations, unlocking pressure, and concerns about cash consumption.
Some comments have pointed out that high AI related capital expenditures have brought pressure. According to the financial report, the capital expenditure of AI business in the second quarter was about 15.8 billion US dollars, higher than analysts' expectations, far exceeding the capital expenditures of 1.37 billion US dollars and 1.17 billion US dollars respectively for the connectivity business and aerospace business. SpaceX executives also predicted during the earnings call that the company's capital expenditures in the third and fourth quarters will be roughly equivalent to those in the second quarter.
This financial report proves that SpaceX's revenue growth is strong, Starlink's profitability is solid, and AI losses are not as severe as market concerns. But from the stock price reaction, Wall Street will focus on three things next: 1. Whether the growth of Starlink users can continue to maintain a high growth rate and promote the continued expansion of satellite internet business profits; 2. Can the timeline for the commercialization of starships be further clarified; 3. When will AI business shift from "high growth, high losses" to sustained "high income, narrowing losses".
Revenue and EBITDA exceeded expectations, and net loss significantly narrowed
SpaceX's total revenue for the second quarter was $7.8 billion, significantly higher than market expectations. According to different institutional perspectives, Bloomberg's compilation expectation is about 6.81 billion US dollars, LSEG's expectation is 6.93 billion US dollars, and the company's actual performance has significantly exceeded both.
The adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter was $3.5 billion, which was significantly stronger than the market expectation of about $2 billion, and also constituted the most impressive item in the financial report. Roughly calculated based on revenue of 7.8 billion US dollars, the adjusted EBITDA profit margin is close to 45%, indicating a significant release of operating leverage in the company's core business in the second quarter.
The bottom line losses have also improved. The company incurred a Q2 EPS loss of $0.09. The media pointed out that this data cannot be directly compared with the average analyst expectation of a loss of $0.26 per share, but in terms of absolute loss magnitude, it is clearly better than the market's previous concerns. SpaceX's net loss in the second quarter was approximately $541 million, an improvement from the loss of approximately $1 billion in the same period last year.
From a net profit perspective, the company is still operating at a loss. The net loss in the second quarter was about 541 million US dollars, although the loss of about 1 billion US dollars compared to the same period last year has significantly narrowed, it still reflects the reality of SpaceX's current business portfolio: Starlink is making money, while aerospace and AI are still consuming profits.
Capital expenditures are also a key focus for investors. The media pointed out that SpaceX's capital expenditure in the second quarter was $18.4 billion, roughly in line with the average analyst expectation of about $18.5 billion. In other words, the financial report did not show a significant easing of the company's capital expenditure pressure. For a company with extremely high valuation and multiple investments in Starship, Starlink expansion, and AI infrastructure, this is enough to make investors cautious.
The following table provides a basic explanation of SpaceX's current business model: satellite connectivity contributes the largest revenue and total operating profit, AI contributes considerable revenue but still incurs huge losses, and the aerospace business has strategic value but is still not profitable in the short term.
From the quarterly performance, the revenue of the three major sectors exceeded expectations, which is the most positive aspect of the financial report. But from the perspective of profit structure, investors' doubts are also very obvious - SpaceX is not yet a multi business fully profitable company, but a high growth, high capital expenditure company that relies on Starlink cash flow to support aerospace and AI investment.
Starlink remains the core of profit: connecting business contributions is the only stable source of profit
The clearest profit pillar for SpaceX at present is still Starlink, and the core driving force for business growth in the second quarter is that by the end of the quarter, the number of Starlink users will double year-on-year to 12 million.
The connection business revenue in the second quarter increased by about 66% year-on-year to 4.29 billion US dollars, higher than the market expectation of 3.83 billion US dollars; The operating profit increased by 79% year-on-year to 1.66 billion US dollars, corresponding to an operating profit margin of nearly 39%. This segment includes Star Link satellite Internet services, and customers include not only individual consumers, but also government and military institutions.
The value of Starlink lies in its transformation from a "space infrastructure story" to a truly scalable consumer and government enterprise connectivity business with revenue and profit. Star Link not only sells satellite Internet services to individual users, but also provides connectivity to government, military and enterprise customers.
It is worth noting that when SpaceX first disclosed shareholder materials as a listed company, it also emphasized the value of government contracts. The company disclosed that its Star Shield business has received over $6 billion in multi-year contracts from the US government. This not only enhances the visibility of future revenue, but also strengthens SpaceX's barriers in the fields of national security, military communications, and low orbit satellite networks.
Of course, government contracts are a double-edged sword. It brings stable orders and a higher strategic position, but also means that some of the company's growth is highly correlated with policies, budget cycles, and regulatory environments. At least from this season's perspective, Starlink and StarShield remain the most easily quantifiable parts of SpaceX's valuation by investors.
Aerospace business: Starship development accelerates, but commercialization has not yet been realized
The performance of traditional aerospace business also presents a "duality".
In the second quarter, SpaceX's aerospace business revenue increased by nearly 29% year-on-year to $962 million, higher than the expected $835 million; But the operation of this business incurred a loss of 542 million US dollars, an increase of nearly 47% year-on-year. That is to say, SpaceX's launch and aerospace business revenue has performed well, but there is still a way to go before it can achieve independent profitability.
This is not surprising. Reusable rockets, starship development, NASA missions, deep space projects, and launch infrastructure all require sustained investment. A significant portion of SpaceX's long-term value comes from the commercialization of Starship, but the space business may continue to drag down the profit statement in the short term until Starship truly achieves high-frequency, low-cost, and reusable commercial launches.
At the operational level, SpaceX has revealed that it has completed two third-generation starship test flights in the past 90 days. This is an important development. Starship is one of the most critical assets in SpaceX's long-term valuation, and its core significance lies in its complete reusability: once rocket boosters and spacecraft superiors can achieve high-frequency reuse, launch costs will be significantly reduced, further supporting longer-term ideas such as Starlink deployment, lunar missions, deep space exploration, and even space data centers.
But the capital market is concerned about how far Starship is from commercialization. The current financial report shows that the revenue of the aerospace business exceeded expectations, but still incurred losses. For investors, this means that the progress of Starship itself is positive, but it is not enough to become a definitive support on the income statement.
That's also why some investors are not just looking at quarterly revenue and EBITDA, but are more concerned about management's statements on key timelines such as commercial launches of starships, NASA mission milestones, in orbit fuel supply, and the recycling and reuse of higher-level spacecraft. SpaceX's aerospace business has extremely high strategic value, but it will continue to consume funds until the business model truly works.
AI business losses lower than expected but 'burning money' narrative not over
The AI business is the most complex part of this financial report: it brings both unexpected revenue and continues to create huge losses.
In the second quarter, AI business revenue increased by approximately 247% year-on-year to $2.56 billion, exceeding market expectations of $2.18 billion; The operating loss narrowed by 17.5% year-on-year to 1.26 billion US dollars, significantly lower than analysts' expected loss of 2.39 billion US dollars. Based solely on poor expectations, the AI department has performed better than the market's most pessimistic assumption.
This is very important for SpaceX. After merging into Musk's xAI in February this year, the company sees "space data centers" and AI computing infrastructure as part of its long-term growth narrative. Previously, the market was concerned that the AI department would continue to devour cash flow. The second quarter performance showed that AI business revenue recognition was faster than expected, and cost pressure was not as severe as the market had previously feared.
However, the AI business remains one of SpaceX's biggest sources of operating losses. SpaceX lost $4.9 billion last year, largely due to high investments in AI infrastructure. The AI business incurred a loss of 1.26 billion US dollars in the second quarter, which is approximately half of the revenue of the sector.
SpaceX has disclosed that it has signed multiple industry-leading cloud service cooperation agreements, resulting in an additional cloud service contract sales of $14.1 billion. This provides revenue visibility for AI computing power businesses. The company also launched its AI big model Grok 4.5 in July and announced the acquisition of Cursor for $60 billion to further expand its AI ecosystem layout.
More importantly, SpaceX previously merged Musk's xAI into the company and proposed a vision of "building data centers in space". This narrative has enormous imaginative space, but naturally comes with huge capital expenditures. Cursor's $60 billion acquisition will also draw market attention to transaction structure, potential dilution, integration costs, and future return cycles.
Therefore, the AI sector is not considered "bad news" in the second quarter report. It is better than the market imagines, but it has not completely eliminated the market's doubts about the return on investment of AI infrastructure.
The stock price turns down after the market closes: it's not a poor financial report, it's a risk of market repricing
The first rise and then fall of SpaceX's stock price after hours indicates that the market initially recognized better than expected revenue, EBITDA, and AI losses, but later funds began to refocus on more difficult problems to solve.
1、 The stock price had already rebounded ahead of schedule before the financial report was released. SpaceX closed up 9.4% during its regular trading session on Tuesday, with some investors clearly betting on better than expected performance. After the performance is realized, it is not surprising that short-term funds "sell the fact".
2、 The company is still operating at a loss. The net loss has improved compared to last year, but the second quarter still incurred a loss of approximately 541 million US dollars; The aerospace business incurred a loss of 542 million US dollars, while the AI business incurred a loss of 1.26 billion US dollars. Only satellite internet services contribute to operating profits. For a company with extremely high valuation, the market not only demands growth, but also requires a clear path for loss convergence.
3、 There is no obvious sign of a decrease in capital expenditure. SpaceX is still simultaneously advancing projects such as starship, Starlink expansion, AI infrastructure, and potential space data centers. Capital expenditures are generally in line with expectations and do not constitute new positive news; If some investors expect to see a signal that the peak of burning money has passed, this financial report does not provide sufficient evidence.
4、 Valuation and stock supply pressures remain. As of the close of this Monday, SpaceX's stock price has fallen more than 15% from its initial public offering price and nearly 50% from its peak since its listing on June 16th. Its market value has evaporated more than $1 trillion from its peak after listing. At the same time, the market was previously concerned that the expiration of the first lock up period for its stocks this Thursday would release a large supply of stocks. Even if the performance is better than expected, the combination of high valuations and unlocking pressure will suppress the sustainability of post market buying.
5. Although the AI business is better than expected, the market still lacks confidence in its long-term returns. The addition of $14.1 billion in contract sales, the release of Grok 4.5, and the acquisition of cursor have all strengthened SpaceX's AI narrative, but contract sales do not equal current revenue, and acquisitions do not equal profits. The next question investors will ask is: when will these AI investments be converted into free cash flow?
