In 2015, a major plan opened the door to commercialization for China's aerospace industry. At that time, the global commercial aerospace landscape was undergoing profound differentiation. SpaceX has successfully validated the vertical recovery technology of the Falcon 9 rocket and quickly translated it into engineering reality. By reusing rockets and launching multiple satellites with one rocket, SpaceX has reduced launch costs to about one-third of traditional rockets, fundamentally reshaping the pricing logic of the market. Faced with the impact, European Ariane Group is forced to launch the development of the next generation of reusable launch vehicles in order to seek low-cost transformation while maintaining market share through the "Ariane 5" heavy rocket. At the same time, Russia relies on the mature reliability of the "Soyuz" rocket to hold onto the commercial launch market, while India rapidly rises in the field of small satellite launches with the extremely high cost-effectiveness of ISRO's PSLV rocket, forming a differentiated competitive path.
Throughout the past decade, the evolution of China's commercial aerospace industry has not been non-linear catch-up, but has unfolded under a clear triple logic: at the top level, it is the opening and traction of national strategy, which sets the track for the industry and provides initial momentum; On the market side, it is the driving force and validation of commercial demand that drives technology from the laboratory to profitability; On the technical side, it is the transition and focus of intergenerational technology, attempting to bypass traditional path dependence and directly target the core of future competition - cost and frequency - by making early bets on next-generation technologies such as liquid oxygen, methane, and recyclability.
1. November 2015
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