In 15 trading days, dozens of stocks hit the daily limit up, and the commercial aerospace sector surged 40% in a single month. China's commercial aerospace industry is entering a turning point of "explosion"!
Chaojie Co., Ltd. doubled in 15 days, Shenjian Co., Ltd. emerged from the 6-day board, and Aerospace Power Co., Ltd. saw its largest increase of over 200% this year. Six commercial rocket companies, including Blue Arrow Aerospace and Zhongke Aerospace, completed IPO guidance.
At the policy level, the 3rd China Commercial Aerospace Development Conference in December will establish an Industry Alliance Science and Technology Innovation Fund with a target scale of 10 billion yuan, focusing on low orbit satellites, reusable rockets, space computing power and other tracks.
The unit energy consumption cost of space computing power is only one tenth of that on the ground, and commercial satellite communication is rapidly expanding. Zhuque-3 has reduced the unit payload launch cost by 95%.
When satellites have transformed from "military luxury goods" to "civilian daily necessities", when space computing power has become the "new continent" of AI big models, and when rocket launches are high-frequency and low-cost like commercial airliners, commercial aerospace has entered a "profit turning point" from a "money burning game".
Market prospect: Setting sail on a trillion dollar track
The competition for low Earth orbit satellites has begun, and the space economy is transitioning from an ideal to a reality.
The prelude to this competition was kicked off by SpaceX's "Starlink" program in an almost "wild growth" manner, with its core being the preemptive occupation of "radio land" such as low Earth orbit and golden frequency bands.
SpaceX's "Starlink" program has deployed over 9000 satellites, almost completely encircling high-quality frequency bands.
This sense of urgency has forced major space faring nations around the world to accelerate their actions. For China, the normalization of intensive launches by institutions such as China Satellite Network is no longer a simple development option, but a strategic necessity related to future space survival rights and avoiding satellites from becoming "space junk" due to the lack of available frequency bands.
In addition to the importance of space strategy, from the current market development perspective, the rapid development of satellite communication and sky computing power has provided a complete commercial closed loop for commercial aerospace.
Firstly, the large-scale application of satellite communication, the maturity of the "direct connection of mobile phones to satellites" technology, has caused terminal costs to plummet from tens of thousands of dollars in the past to several thousand yuan, making satellite communication move from professional equipment to mass consumer goods.
For example, the high-end version of Xiaomi 17 Ultra integrates the dual satellite system of Tiantong-1 satellite communication and Beidou satellite SMS, marking the critical point of the explosion of consumer level applications.
According to China Energy News, the market space for low Earth orbit satellite communication alone will reach 1260 by 2025; Billion yuan, compared to; 2023 The entire domestic commercial aerospace market is still large in the year; 1.7 Twice.
Mobile phone direct connection to satellite, car direct connection to satellite, maritime Internet of Things, emergency communication - all are rigid scenarios that "ground base stations can never cover", and satellites have become the only solution.
Satellite communication is forcing the acceleration of the 'rocket assembly line', and in July 2025 alone, China will; Continuous within the day 2 Group of Low Earth Orbit Satellites (05/06 Group), with plans to launch nearly 100 satellites throughout the year, with a bidding amount 13.36 Billion yuan, the value of a single satellite; 1400 Ten thousand yuan, synchronous amplification of ground terminal supporting demand.
Satellite communication has transformed "launch orders" from government single point to capital wholesale, and rocket companies have finally moved out of "relying on the sky for survival" and entered the era of sustainable cash flow "relying on constellations for survival". By 2030; In, the global satellite communication (including Internet access) market is expected to reach hundreds of billions of dollars, with a compound annual growth rate 15% -20%.
If satellite communication is still an "old concept", then space computing power has added a new tile to commercial aerospace.
SpaceX's; Starship "; The plan is not only to send satellites, but also to target lunar bases and space data centers. China, on the other hand, has adopted; GW Constellation; Plan to deploy 13000 satellites, a significant proportion of which will be equipped with computing power modules.
The computing power satellite operates at an altitude of 700-800 kilometers, with solar power generation efficiency three times that of the ground. It saves 40% of cooling costs in environments close to absolute zero, and vacuum light speed transmission is 30% faster than fiber optics, achieving a paradigm revolution of "sensing and computing".
Traditional remote sensing data transmission requires 8 Hour, in orbit AI Reasoning compresses the processing cycle to the "minute level", and immediately opens up payment willingness in "millisecond level" scenarios such as emergency disaster relief, smart cities, and high-frequency financial transactions;.
When the launch cost drops to $200/kg, the return on investment of space data centers becomes positive, and with the advancement of reusable rockets, the cost of commercial space is plummeting. From 'sending rockets' to' sending express delivery ', the logic of commercial aerospace is about to be completely reconstructed.
Rocket recycling, compared to traditional launch methods, has reduced costs by 95%. The cost of a traditional one-time rocket launch exceeds $100 million, while a recyclable rocket reduces the cost of a single launch to $2-5 million.
Blue Arrow Aerospace; Zhuque No.3; The launch cost of liquid oxygen methane rockets such as Tianlong-3 has been reduced to thousands of dollars per kilogram, approaching SpaceX's level.
When the unit load cost drops from tens of thousands of dollars per kilogram to the level of 200 dollars per kilogram, space activities shift from "national engineering" to "standardized services", and the marginal cost approaches that of civil aviation freight. And the current cost is getting closer and closer to this tipping point.
The logic behind the outbreak of commercial satellites
After the integration of business logic and technology cost reduction, the approach of "focusing on doing big things" has once again been put on the table. The giant constellation plans of China Star Network (GW constellation) and Qianfan constellation, which plan over ten thousand satellites, have emerged like this.
This is not empty talk, but a pile up of real orders. The State Grid Constellation Plan aims to launch 1300 satellites by 2029 and deploy 13000 by 2035; The Qianfan Constellation plans to have over 15000 satellites and has launched five batches of 90 networked satellites. Just launching a satellite involves infrastructure construction, long-term operation, and services, opening up a trillion dollar market.
According to predictions from multiple authoritative institutions, the global deep space economy is expected to exceed $1 trillion by 2040, with commercial aerospace being the core engine.
The outbreak of the entire commercial aerospace sector in December is essentially a collective confirmation by the market of the "turning point of profitability". When the launch cost falls below the critical point, commercial aerospace will usher in exponential growth, just like the Internet from dial-up Internet access to fiber home access. Who will eat the biggest cake in such a complex field?
The first to profit is undoubtedly the upstream production and materials of carrier rockets, which is the source of 95% of the cost reduction in commercial aerospace. With the maturity of liquid oxygen methane rocket technology, reusable rockets such as Zhuque-3 and Tianlong-3 have successfully entered orbit, and the unit payload cost has rapidly decreased. And among them, the most important are aerospace materials and core components.
For example, high-temperature alloys, which are the "heart" of rocket engines, were previously monopolized by Europe and America, with exorbitant prices. With the outbreak of commercial aerospace this year, the demand for high-temperature alloys has surged by 300%, but the concentration of production capacity has increased to 85%, squeezing out small businesses.
In August of this year, Tiangong Group achieved mass production of high-temperature alloy components for rocket engines, reducing the price of high-temperature alloys from 800000 yuan/ton to 400000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50%. High temperature alloys are transforming from "sky high luxury goods" to "bulk daily necessities".
Nowadays, the localization rate of high-temperature alloys has increased to 70%, but only three companies including Tiangong Group and Sirui New Materials have passed the technical verification, and the remaining 12 small factories have closed down in 2025.
Secondly, carbon fiber composite materials can reduce the weight of rockets by 30% and increase their single launch carrying capacity by 15%. In October, Chaojie Corporation achieved mass delivery of carbon fiber components for rocket bodies. The current orders of Chaojie Co., Ltd. are scheduled until 2026, and the performance is expected to increase by 100%
From the perspective of the overall demand for aerospace grade carbon fiber, the demand for carbon fiber will increase by 200% in 2025, but the gross profit margin will decrease from 65% to 50%, and a price war has begun
Carbon fiber is the "skeleton" of rockets, and a piece of carbon fiber board used to be more expensive than gold. Now, companies such as Chaojie and Feilihua have formed economies of scale, but small businesses are being rapidly eliminated due to inadequate technology. A 'battle royale' has already begun.
In addition to these large components, aerospace electronic components are also very important, with the localization rate of chips soaring from 15% to 70%. In December 2025, Hualichuangtong will mass produce satellite communication chips, with a cost reduction of 70%.
Aerospace electronic components are the 'space nerve', which used to rely on imports for 90%. Now companies such as Huali Chuangtong and China Satellite have broken through technological barriers, but insufficient R&D investment is still a hidden danger.
In addition to the upstream, the "fission" in the midstream is also a "revolution" in rocket and satellite manufacturing. By 2025, there will be 34 commercial rocket launches with a success rate of 95%, but only 3 out of 15 companies have passed technical validation. Marking the entry of China's commercial launch; Civil Aviation "; The era. But the cruel thing is that the industry reshuffle is imminent in 2026, and 70% of rocket companies will be eliminated.
The downstream application explosion depends on the "consumer level revolution" of satellite applications. The current scale of mobile phone direct satellite users has jumped from millions to billions, and the market size has moved from billions to billions. In addition, with the computing revolution, the outbreak period downstream is about to come.
The real winners in the future commercial aerospace industry will be enterprises with mass production capabilities and downstream applications.
Which targets are on the wind?
From the above analysis, it is not difficult to understand why the recent increase in rocket body manufacturing has often reached 100%, because of the explosive demand, which has caused many orders for rocket manufacturing to be delayed for a few years. In this' throat passage ', there are high technological barriers and abundant orders.
Chaojie Group's performance is expected to increase by over 100% this year, driving the stock price up by over 150%. From December 24th to 25th, it surged by 20% for two consecutive days. Tiangong Group's high-temperature alloy material gross profit margin is 65%, and the recent increase has also doubled directly. Chaojie Co., Ltd. has provided bulk supply to multiple private rocket companies.
In addition to rocket manufacturing, space computing power closely follows. China Satcom's revenue increased by 42.6% in the first three quarters, and the proportion of space development satellite business increased to 35%, driving the stock price of Shunhao to nearly double, China Satcom to rise by more than 60%, and space development to rise by nearly 60%.
However, it is worth noting that Shunhao Corporation's 110 million yuan space computing power layout has ignited the market, but its main business is still tobacco packaging, with space business accounting for less than 5%, which is somewhat "riding on the hot spot".
As the key to the "last mile" of satellite communication, satellite communication chips, with Hualichuangtong as the core supplier, have a market share of over 40%. However, the R&D expenses in the first three quarters were only over 4000 yuan, raising doubts about the technical barriers.
The rest of the sub sectors have seen an increase of less than 50%, with obvious concept hype. For example, Feilihua in aerospace materials and aerospace electronics in satellite applications either have immature technologies or failed business models.
The key is that the industry reshuffle of commercial aerospace is imminent. Many startups in 2025 will be eliminated in 2026, and the battle royale has begun. The industry reshuffle in 2026 is imminent, and companies without core technology and real orders will be eliminated!
Which targets can take over the second leg of commercial aerospace development in the future? This needs to be found in segmented fields and hidden champions.
For example, the surge in production demand in areas such as payload components and radiation resistant chips for computing power satellites has become an important lever for achieving performance. As the core component of satellite payloads, spaceborne T/R chips account for 37.5% of the total payload value. Chengchang Technology is the only domestic private enterprise with the ability to mass produce on a large scale.
In the field of anti radiation chips, Jiayuan Technology has become a core supplier of commercial satellites due to its technological barriers in adapting to extreme satellite environments. With the promotion of low orbit satellite mass production and networking, demand rigidity continues to increase.
Among the other niche "hidden champions", although the market size is not large, they enjoy the dividend of increasing product value through their technological monopoly position.
For example, in the field of aerospace bearings, China National Machinery Industry Corporation's Jinggong has a market share of over 90%, providing high-precision ceramic bearings for recyclable rockets such as the Long March 12A. With the increasing complexity of rocket structures, the value of single rocket bearings has skyrocketed from 2-3 million yuan to 4.5-92 million yuan, and the performance elasticity is significant in 2026.
In the field of offshore recovery and control, Hailanxin has jointly won the bid for the 458 million yuan Hainan Commercial Aerospace Offshore Recovery System project. Its centimeter level landing guidance system single arrow matching value is about 80 million yuan, and it is expected to contribute more than 1.2 billion yuan in revenue from 2026 to 2028, with strong performance certainty.
In 2026, the best target for commercial aerospace is likely to possess the attributes of "state-owned enterprise leaders' ballast+private enterprise hidden champions' flexibility", with both offensive and defensive capabilities, and dual attributes of "order locking+technical barriers".
So, the recent outbreak of commercial aerospace is essentially a combination of three turning points: technology, cost, and demand. From the rush to star chain, to direct connection to mobile phones, and then to the launch of computing power, the space economy is moving from a national project to the main battlefield of commerce.
In the next decade, whoever controls space infrastructure will hold the new valve of the digital economy.
