On February 7th, it was reported that although the second phase of the Hainan Commercial Space Launch Site officially started construction in early 2026, the high launch costs are becoming a real obstacle for commercial space companies.
According to a report by the Economic Observer today, investors have revealed that for a rocket launch mission at Hainan Commercial Development, the workstation fee alone would cost tens of millions of yuan. This explains why some companies would rather build their own infrastructure than enter commercial launch sites, because the profit from launching a rocket may not be enough to pay the site rent
Behind the cost dilemma lies an urgent challenge for the commercial aerospace industry chain. In January 2026, China applied to the International Telecommunication Union for orbital resources for 203000 satellites, setting a new historical high. At the same time, the satellite manufacturing end has improved efficiency through automated production lines - for example, Galaxy's Nantong factory has shortened the single satellite development cycle by 80% and achieved an annual production capacity of over 100 satellites - but the capacity gap for satellite launch continues to widen.
The core of the shortage of transportation capacity lies in the lag of reusable liquid rocket technology. In 2025, out of China's 92 space launches throughout the year, 50 were commercial launches, but almost all private liquid rockets with high carrying capacity were absent. Leading companies such as Star River Power and Zhongke Aerospace still rely on solid rockets to perform most tasks, while the latter is limited by carrying capacity and non recyclability, making it difficult to support the networking needs of tens of thousands of satellites.
Satellite operators are facing a passive situation of 'no arrows available'. In 2025, when Yuanxin Satellite purchased rocket capacity for the "Thousand Sail Constellation", it could only accept bids for "futures" rockets that had not yet made their maiden flight due to a shortage of two failed bids from suppliers.
The reason is simple, the Long March series rockets have been diverted. ”Zhang Chi, Chairman of New Ding Capital, stated that in order to ensure the networking and other tasks of the national constellation "Star Network", the main transportation capacity of the national team has been prioritized for requisition, narrowing the window left for the commercial market.
After the unsuccessful bid, the bidding party can only be forced to modify the rules and allow "futures" to enter, that is, the bidding party only needs to promise to complete the first flight before the end of 2025. Blue Arrow Aerospace, Tianbing Technology, and Zhongke Aerospace were therefore shortlisted.
Due to the slower than expected progress of existing commercial rockets, Yuanxin Satellite has even attempted to incubate a rocket enterprise called "Starfire Space" in Chengdu through affiliated companies, with plans to launch the first liquid oxygen kerosene rocket in 2027.
To break through the bottleneck, 2026 will become a key validation year for private liquid rockets: six leading companies, including Blue Arrow Aerospace Zhuque III and Tianbing Technology Tianlong III, plan to achieve breakthroughs in orbit insertion and recovery technology.
As is well known, reusable rockets are regarded as the core path to cost reduction - currently, the launch cost of private rockets is about 30000 to 40000 yuan per kilogram, and the first stage rocket body accounts for 60% -70% of the total rocket cost. Reuse technology can reduce the cost of a single launch to 60% of the first flight.
At the same time, the patience of the capital market is diminishing. In January 2026, the Blue Arrow Aerospace Science and Technology Innovation Board IPO entered the inquiry stage within 22 days, and five companies including Zhongke Aerospace and Interstellar Honor also intensively promoted the listing process. At the policy level, the fifth set of listing standards for the Science and Technology Innovation Board clearly supports commercial aerospace companies and only requires "successful orbit insertion" rather than "successful recovery", providing a financing window for companies with immature technology. But the pressure for early investors to exit has intensified: more than 10 old shareholders of Blue Arrow Aerospace cleared their positions and left during the reporting period, highlighting the pressure of industry fund expiration.
