Image |AI generated
In the past month, the global commercial rocket industry has witnessed a series of exciting events: the second launch of the US New Glenn rocket successfully achieved first stage sea recovery; In China, the Zhuque III successfully completed refueling and static ignition of its first stage engine, while the Tianlong III successfully conducted a simulated load transportation and vibration test of "one rocket, 36 satellites", with its maiden flight imminent. The differentiation path and engineering landing rhythm of commercial rocket technology breakthroughs in major aerospace countries clearly point to the approaching singularity of industrial restructuring.
Recently, central media such as Securities Times and Shanghai Securities News have put forward the viewpoint that "capital should empower the transformation of technology into business", emphasizing that "scale and high reliability are the breakthrough points in the industry", accurately pointing out the current stage characteristics of the commercial rocket industry. The competition for "occupying frequency and maintaining orbit" of global low orbit satellites has entered a sprint period, and the construction of China's low orbit giant constellation has entered a critical period. In the next 5-10 years, tens of thousands of satellites need to be launched into a network, and the capacity gap is significant, which has become a key bottleneck restricting the development of the industry. The value of commercial rockets in filling the gap is becoming increasingly prominent.
After ten years of development, China's commercial aerospace industry is standing at a critical historical turning point. The competition of upstream rocket technology is booming, not only breaking the cost constraints of traditional launch models, but also paving the way for the large-scale development of the commercial aerospace industry, and becoming the ultimate stage for testing the core competitiveness of commercial rocket enterprises. At present, as the first batch of top companies to impact IPOs demonstrate their industrialization and scale capabilities, the value perception bias in the rocket industry is also undergoing structural calibration, tending towards rationality and systematization.
Bottom logic: Evolutionary formula for commercial rocket enterprises
（1） Technical dimension: Anchoring business needs and rejecting "technology shows"
The technological innovation of commercial rockets is not a wild exploration. All technological breakthroughs must revolve around the core goals of cost reduction, efficiency improvement, and order matching, and resolutely avoid falling into the trap of blindly pursuing single point technological leadership. The value of technology ultimately needs to be verified through whether it can catch large-scale orders, rather than staying in laboratory parameter reports. At the current stage, the coordinated efforts of the three major technological directions of "large transportation capacity, reliable track entry, and recyclability" are the key support for building a stable and rational commercial closed loop.
The core value of recyclable technology lies in reducing the cost of a single launch through the repeated use of the arrow body, but its maturity and scale application still need to go through a necessary process of continuous testing, which is difficult to achieve overnight. Therefore, its development pace must match the actual demand for transportation capacity and technological stage, avoiding "recycling for the sake of recycling". Large capacity is the core competitiveness for breaking the bottleneck of low orbit constellation networking and undertaking bulk orders at the current stage. Its implementation not only depends on rocket body design, but also on the maturity and reliability of high thrust engines; Reliable in orbit technology is the "lifeline" of commercial cooperation, directly determining the market reputation and order sustainability of enterprises. Its core lies in redundant design, fault contingency plans, and testing and verification systems. Simply put, the core requirement for large-scale networking is to match large transportation capacity. Reliable entry into orbit is the basic prerequisite for commercial cooperation, while recyclability focuses on long-term cost reduction. All three are indispensable.
In terms of the technological path selection of domestic private rockets, "capacity first, recovery later" has become an active strategic choice made by some enterprises based on market demand. Its path is clear and pragmatic: taking the lead in overcoming the technical barriers of large transportation capacity, to undertake urgent networking orders, and to provide sufficient cash flow and time window for the subsequent research and iteration of recycling technology. For example, Tianlong III of Tianbing Technology adopts technologies such as engine 3D printing and coal based kerosene sulfur separation, aiming to achieve cost control and efficiency improvement. Its first stage power system thrust is at the leading level among domestic liquid rockets, with a low Earth orbit capacity of up to 22 tons, capable of executing the "One Rocket 36 Satellite" network launch mission, and has the ability to serve space station cargo and medium to high Earth orbit satellite launches. It is understood that Tianlong-3 is one of the few private rockets in China that simultaneously deploy recyclable, high-capacity, and reliable orbital technology, reflecting a pragmatic orientation in the technological path.
（2） Industry dimension: Full chain layout, building a solid foundation for high-frequency transmission
Scale up is the key to cost reduction for commercial rockets, and its implementation cannot be achieved without full chain production capacity support. Relying solely on the technological breakthroughs of the R&D team cannot achieve mass launches. Enterprises must build a complete production capacity system from self-developed core components, rocket assembly manufacturing, to launch site support.
In terms of production capacity layout, leading private enterprises are building systematic advantages through the model of "self-developed core components+regional production capacity layout". Taking Star River Power and Star Glory as examples, the former is promoting the construction of the "Zhishenxing" series rocket production base, while the latter is establishing a rocket production base in Shuangliu District, Chengdu, with the goal of achieving an annual production capacity of more than 20 rounds. Tianbing Technology has also initially established an industrial system covering research and development, manufacturing, and launch in multiple regions. According to public information, its annual production capacity target is 30 rockets and 500 rocket engines. This model of "self-developed core components+regional production capacity layout" has become a common choice for top rocket companies.
The full chain capability building of the national team has more benchmark significance. The Long March 8A rocket developed by the First Academy of China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, with its pulsating production line of "7-day launch and 7-day recovery" and three vertical workstations, provides infrastructure support for high-frequency networked launches. The Hainan commercial space launch site took only 878 days from planning to construction, and its low-temperature refueling system and other indicators ranked first in China, becoming the core hub for commercial launches.
In the next 1-3 years, low orbit constellations will enter a period of intensive launches. During this critical window period, whether it is the large-scale production capacity matrix constructed by private enterprises or the efficient launch infrastructure built by the national team, they are essentially seizing the commanding heights of the "production capacity launch service" system capability. Only by forming the main body of full chain synergy advantages can they gain the initiative in market competition.
（3） Capital dimension: IPO is not the end point, but a new starting point for industrialization
The policy of the China Securities Regulatory Commission to include commercial aerospace in the support scope of the science and technology innovation growth layer on the Science and Technology Innovation Board has opened up a channel for the entry of industrial capital at the institutional level. In just one year, there have been nearly 10 commercial aerospace companies vying for IPOs. For commercial rocket companies, IPO is never the end point of achieving success and fame, but a new starting point for improving production capacity and expanding the market through capital power. The capital market should abandon speculation on "technological concepts" and focus on the ability of enterprises to "transform technology into production capacity". Only when capital and industrial demand are synchronized can the industry avoid falling into a "false fire".
From the perspective of industry trends, the trend of "capital empowering industrialization" is very clear. The capital investment of multiple companies planning to go public is highly consistent and concentrated on capacity building. For example, companies such as Zhongke Aerospace allocate a large proportion of funds to capacity construction and launch site layout in their financing plans disclosed during the IPO guidance stage; The first batch of 700 million yuan in D+round financing from Star Glory will be invested in rocket mass production and capacity building. The consistency of capital investment confirms that capital's attention to "technology landing capability" has far exceeded simple technology research and development. In addition, local government industrial funds have become an important driving force, and the "private technology+state-owned asset empowerment" model not only guarantees the funding needs for capacity construction, but also achieves the synergy between industrial development and regional strategies.
（4） Strategic dimension: Integrating into the national system to achieve value amplification
The long-term growth of commercial rockets cannot be achieved without coordination with national strategies. The key to achieving sustainable development for enterprises is to assist the national low orbit constellation network by supplementing transportation capacity, while reducing their own research and development and manufacturing costs through the foundation of the aerospace industry. This "two-way empowerment" model is the key to achieving sustainable development for enterprises.
The synergy between private rockets and national strategy is gradually emerging through complementary transportation capabilities. If Tianlong-3, which is expected to make its maiden flight by the end of this year, successfully enters orbit, its low Earth orbit capacity will effectively supplement the resources of the national team and jointly alleviate the networking needs of the low Earth orbit constellation. This complementarity has been proven effective in practice: in the multiple batches of giant constellation launch missions undertaken by Long March 8 this year, a commercial scheduling mechanism was used to integrate private satellite enterprises and state-owned launch forces, achieving coordinated operation of commercial resources. This model of "commercial replenishment national strategy" can not only enable enterprises to obtain stable strategic level orders, but also rely on the national aerospace system to achieve technological iteration and cost optimization.
Commercial rockets are not independent challengers outside the national system, but rather supplements and co builders of the national aerospace industry. This position has been clearly defined in multiple national space policies. Private rocket companies can apply for access to the national launch network through specialized launch station qualifications, while the national team provides support to private enterprises through technology transformation and facility sharing. This "public-private collaboration" ecosystem is the unique advantage that sets China's commercial aerospace industry apart from its international counterparts.
Based on the analysis of the four dimensions mentioned above, we can draw the core conclusion that the commercial rocket track has shifted from a "single point technological breakthrough" to a "system capability competition". At this stage, the advantage of a single dimension is no longer enough to break through the development bottleneck. Only by anchoring commercial needs in technology (recyclability, large transportation capacity, reliable track coordination), achieving full chain layout in industry, promoting industrialization process in capital, and integrating into the national system strategically, can we form a multi-dimensional collaborative development system capability, firmly establish a foothold in competition, and seize key opportunities for industrial development. This constitutes the "underlying logic" of sustainable development for commercial rocket companies, and is also the key to practicing "long termism" in fierce competition.
Conclusion: The Path of Aerospace Industry Co construction under Longtermism
The next five years will be a critical window period for China's low orbit constellation network, covering a comprehensive competition of technological autonomy, mass production stability, launch economy, and ecological synergy, which will become the core benchmark for the survival and development of commercial aerospace enterprises.
Driven by the dual drive of commercial aerospace IPO competition and technological breakthroughs, the development pattern of the industry is becoming increasingly clear: the technological innovation vitality of private enterprises is equally important as the infrastructure support of the national team, and the rational empowerment of capital and the pragmatic layout of the industry complement each other. The 'long termism' of commercial aerospace lies in finding a balance between technological exploration and commercial reality, short-term production capacity and long-term innovation. Only in this way can we have the opportunity to win in the long-distance race of "space economy" and jointly promote China's commercial aerospace industry to reach new heights.
