On December 4th, the "WIM2025 Innovator Annual Conference · Future Space Summit" hosted by Yiou and Hangtou Enterprise Service officially kicked off at the Westin Hotel in Beijing.
With the accelerated evolution of aerospace integration, the low altitude economy is becoming a new engine for global economic growth. The forum is themed "Future Space" and focuses on the strategic blueprint of low altitude economy moving towards diversified scenarios. The agenda revolves around key areas such as logistics and distribution, smart cities, emergency rescue, and cultural tourism consumption, and deeply explores technological breakthroughs, commercial paths, and infrastructure support. The aim is to promote the deep integration of low altitude industry and urban development, and build an open and collaborative application ecosystem.
The event invited cutting-edge technology experts, investors, and representatives of industry leaders to have in-depth discussions on infrastructure, aircraft innovation, and diverse scenario applications. Through trend analysis, case sharing, and path discussions, it promoted the construction of feasible solutions and cooperative ecosystems, and jointly planned a realistic path for high-quality development of the low altitude economy.
At this summit, Yan Jun, founder of Seagull Flying Car Group, academician of the National Academy of Artificial Intelligence in the United States, and foreign academician of the Serbian National Academy of Sciences, presented a paper titled "When can eVTOL aircraft enter the urban manned flight phase? 》The keynote speech.
The following is a summary of the speech content:
Dear leaders and experts, it is a great honor to have the opportunity to report to you all.
Currently, the field of low altitude aircraft is receiving a lot of attention. Just now, a guest mentioned the need to maintain optimism and patience, which triggered my thinking: how long does our patience need to last? When will the industry truly take off and low altitude flight truly integrate into urban life? This is exactly the core issue I want to discuss with everyone today.
Firstly, let's take a look at the market outlook. The guest's analysis of the market just now was very thorough. He mentioned that the domestic low altitude economy market is expected to reach a scale of 3.5 trillion yuan by 2035, and I believe this scale may be even larger. We have conducted research and statistics on the demand of various industries and found that although the market demand is still mainly concentrated in the ToB and ToG fields of special industries, the potential of the ToC market in manned scenarios is even more considerable.
China has 175 cities with a population of over one million, and based solely on the population base, there is a market demand for approximately 1.7 million aircraft. According to the data we have compiled, the market capacity of ToG, ToB, and ToC in all scenarios ranges from 570000 to 2 million aircraft. Among them, the three major manned scenarios of manned flight experience, commuting transportation, and personal travel alone correspond to a market size of 1.65 trillion yuan for aircraft, but this market will take some time to gradually digest.
In addition to the aircraft market, the market size of low altitude support comprehensive services, scenario applications and other fields is expected to reach 2 trillion yuan. Based on the 3.5 trillion yuan target mentioned by the previous guests, China's low altitude economy is fully capable of achieving development achievements beyond those of foreign countries.
The driving effect of low altitude economy covers multiple industries, including low altitude manufacturing, low altitude support, comprehensive services, and flight operations, each with distinct characteristics. Taking the field of aircraft design and manufacturing as an example, the low altitude manufacturing industry has formed a certain scale. At the level of low altitude support, the Civil Aviation Administration of China and other departments have established a low altitude service support system; In the field of operations, significant achievements have also been made, with numerous operating companies performing outstandingly.
The concept of low altitude flight is in line with the future air traffic (AAM) concept proposed by the United States in the early years. The Urban Air Mobility (UAM) concept constructed by AAM is centered on solving urban traffic congestion problems. Currently, there are 3 billion people living in cities worldwide, and this number is expected to increase to 6 billion in the future. The population density of major cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou is still increasing. Relying solely on ground transportation construction, such as excavating tunnels or building roads, is difficult to fundamentally solve the problem of travel. Investing a large amount of resources in ground infrastructure construction cannot completely solve the traffic congestion dilemma. In this context, the importance of urban air traffic (UAM) has become increasingly prominent, which is also one of the core directions for the development of China's low altitude economy.
When it comes to Chinese low altitude aircraft, we have to mention eVTOL (electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft). At present, there are various configurations of eVTOLs on the market, including multi rotor, composite wing, tilt rotor, and ducted vector thrust. The numerous enterprises and research and development institutions present today are important forces driving the rapid development of the domestic eVTOL industry.
Data shows that last year, China's unmanned aerial vehicles accumulated 27 million flight hours, and 19000 enterprises participated in the low altitude economy field. It is worth noting that about 20 manufacturers have seriously participated in TC (Model Certification) certification, which is an encouraging development trend.
In the eVTOL field, companies such as Xiaopeng Huitian, Shanghai Fengfei, and Volant have achieved good results. I come from Seagull Flying Automotive Company, and we are actively developing, certifying, and applying related products.
The next key question is, what conditions do low altitude flights need to truly integrate into cities? I have proposed a preliminary assessment system for this, which revolves around six major influencing factors: market access, infrastructure, airworthiness certification acquisition, technical reliability, operating costs, and social acceptance. We propose the Low Altitude Flight Maturity Index (AMI) based on this, in which all six factors are indispensable.
From the perspective of enterprises, we are particularly concerned about product maturity, and operating costs are the key factor determining market acceptance. If the cost of aircraft reaches tens of millions of yuan, market demand will inevitably be limited; If controlled at the level of hundreds of thousands of yuan, it can significantly improve popularity. At the same time, social acceptance cannot be ignored, for example, if the reliability and noise issues of aircraft cannot be solved, it will be difficult to gain public recognition. Based on these six factors, we constructed an evaluation formula, taking the six influencing factors as variable parameters, and designed and calculated the relevant weights to form the Low Altitude Flight Maturity Index (AMI). I also calculated the AMI index for two listed companies. I also hope that everyone can work together to improve this low altitude flight maturity index, so that it can more comprehensively cover various factors in the industry.
The AMI calculation provides us with reference, but industrial development needs to return to reality, where product maturity is the core key. Taking eVTOL aircraft as an example, the four core technology areas of overall aircraft design, advanced avionics systems, flight control/autonomous flight systems, and power energy systems are crucial. Especially autonomous flight technology, deeply integrated with current artificial intelligence technology; The power energy system relies on the basic support of China's power battery and green energy industry.
It can be said that the development of low altitude aircraft is closely related to artificial intelligence technology, which is also an important consideration dimension in our assessment system. If the core technology cannot be broken through, the reliability and feasibility of the aircraft cannot be discussed.
Airworthiness certification is also a key link in the development of the industry. It is not just about obtaining a certificate once and for all, but requires enterprises to establish full lifecycle support capabilities. Taking TC certification as an example, the audit not only focuses on the product itself, but also values the company's design assurance system and quality control system with the participation of all employees. This is a clear understanding among colleagues in the industry. The Civil Aviation Administration of China has strict standards and effective supervision in airworthiness certification. Whether it is the routine certification process from TC, PC to AC, or the management mode and special airworthiness certification path for special operation restricted drones, there are clear and precise definitions.
The advantages of obtaining TC certification are very obvious, as enterprises can achieve batch declaration. Of course, TC certification alone is not enough, PC certification is also required for mass production. TC certification is a very difficult process. Taking the TC certification of multi rotor aircraft as an example, the manned application scenario alone requires passing thousands of parameter assessments. The strict audit of the aircraft system by TC certification is the technical guarantee for the healthy development of the industry. Our company is also actively participating in the relevant certification process and has completed the sorting for different categories.
From a policy perspective, the Civil Aviation Administration of China has established a comprehensive qualification certification system, including charter flight certificates, special airworthiness certificates, model qualification certificates, production licenses, single aircraft airworthiness certificates, operational qualification certificates, etc. Its certification index system, testing methods, and specific steps are clearly defined, providing clear compliance guidance for enterprise development, which is an important guarantee for the orderly development of low altitude economy.
Infrastructure construction is another key factor in integrating low altitude flight into cities. For example, in the urban area of Beijing, if 1% of the 10 million permanent residents have a flying demand, they would need 100000 aircraft; Even if calculated at one thousandth, it still requires 10000 aircraft. The planning and construction of takeoff and landing points have become the top priority for such a large-scale aircraft. The construction ideas of the "four networks" such as air route network, facility network, air network, and service network proposed by everyone now provide a good reference for infrastructure layout. And route planning requires strong computing power support, and the layout of China's "East West Calculation" project can provide sufficient computing power guarantee for route planning.
At the same time, infrastructure construction also faces many practical problems. For example, legal issues such as the ownership of aircraft control, coordination between ground control and aerial flight still need to be further clarified. However, it is gratifying that the country attaches great importance to the development of low altitude economy, and the construction of take-off and landing points in various regions is being orderly promoted. Taking Suzhou, where our company headquarters is located, as an example, hundreds of take-off and landing points have been planned and constructed. In the future, as the construction progresses, the number of take-off and landing points will continue to increase.
From the perspective of industry participation, nearly 20 companies are currently promoting TC certification, distributed in multiple provinces such as Jiangsu, Shanghai, Anhui, Sichuan, Hunan, etc. This fully demonstrates that companies in the industry are seriously engaged in the low altitude economy industry.
Overall, China's low altitude economy has gone through the research and development testing stage. As mentioned by the previous guests, the development of the industry still requires disruptive technological breakthroughs. Currently, the power battery powered multi rotor manned flight lasts only about 20 minutes, and after deducting takeoff and landing time, the actual flight time is only a dozen minutes, which obviously cannot meet market demand. Therefore, we need to continue exploring disruptive technologies while also recognizing that the industry has entered a critical stage of commercial exploration. At present, the commercial application of special operation scenarios such as freight, emergency, and fire protection has gradually been implemented, and regulations and standards such as TC certification are also being improved synchronously. The entire industry is in an important period of parallel promotion of commercial exploration and regulatory standardization construction.
From the perspective of policy support and industrial development trends, China has the basic conditions to promote the landing of urban manned low altitude flights.
The above is my report. Thank you all for listening!
